Copy for Real Estate Guide Column for 7-29-05 (461 words)

REAL ESTATE PATTERNS
By Ken DuVall

Change in the Wind?

We see a slight slackening of the pace in the Chico residential market. Not to panic, but we are experiencing the “Triple R” syndrome of late: 1st: Retours. After not selling for 1 month, listing agents may put the property back on Wednesday’s MLS Tour to refresh our memories. 2nd: Price Reductions. After no sale for sometime at the original price, homes are being reduced to attract offers. And 3rd: “Refreshments” are being offered at the agent’s open house on Wednesdays. We haven’t needed to entice agents out to see new listings for a long time as they were selling so quickly. There you have it: Retours, Reductions, and Refreshments. And there’s more inventory too- some 25% more, 188 Chico homes at this writing last week- than we’ve seen in months, and they’re on the market longer. A softening had to start happening, but as always, the good goods still move fast.
ON THE OTHER HAND
In some hot markets across the country, homeowners have been putting up “Not for Sale!” signs in their front yards to discourage agents from soliciting listings! So it’s hot, or not, here and there. I don’t think Chico will ever take a bath in the demand department. We’ll never have any more available land, and the transplants will continue to seek our simple way of life indefinitely into the future. It would help if we solved the inherent conflict in our ongoing affordable housing dilemma, where some folks want it and some don’t. We’re definitely between a rock and a hard place on that issue. But meanwhile, the beat goes on. Cautionary note: we hope speculators don’t pull their profits by dumping homes purchased for investment all at once, thereby flooding the market. Better to enjoy tax shelter and appreciation than to pay capital gains tax to Uncle.
EXPERT COMMENT
Ben Bernanke, 51, the White House Chief Economist on Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors, frequently mentioned as the successor to Alan Greenspan, the current Fed chief who’s expected to step down next year, made these remarks last week. He said the housing surge appears primarily driven by basic market forces. “While speculative buying and selling has cropped up in certain local markets, strong economic fundamentals are contributing importantly to the boom, including low mortgage rates, rising employment and incomes, a growing population, and a limited supply of inventory. Our best defenses against potential problems in housing markets are vigilant lenders and banking regulators, coupled with foresight and good sense on the part of buyers/borrowers.” Before going to work at the Fed, Bernanke was a Professor and Chairman of Economics at Princeton University. Party line or not, he’s qualified to know what he’s talking about. Meanwhile, Greenspan too continues upbeat about our economic growth. So do I.

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, Realtors at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.

Copy for NVRE Guide for 7-22-05 (453 words)

REAL ESTATE PATTERNS
By Ken DuVall

Stuff You Wouldn’t Have Without Him!

Instead of the usual, here are some fascinating real estate related facts that may surprise you about one of our great American pioneers, George Westinghouse. Some may not even remember the Westinghouse Refrigerator. I recall a Bugs Bunny cartoon of the day when Bugs was found sleeping in a frig. He said, “Why not? It’s a Westinghouse, and I’m just here ‘westing’!” I never knew half this stuff until I came across George’s biography recently.
ASTOUNDING
George was born October 6th, 1846. He received his first patent for a rotary engine in 1865 at age 19, just one of the 361 patents (second only to Edison’s) he accumulated during his lifetime. A year later, home from the Civil War, a year that changed his life forever, he was onboard a train that had to make an emergency stop. He realized immediately that the braking system was woefully inadequate. At age 22, he then merely invented the air brake! By 1881 he had perfected the first automatic electric train signal that ended up moving all the railroad traffic from that day to this. He purchased patent rights from the brilliant intellect Nicola Tesla (I once built a 1 million-volt “Tesla Coil” that practically dimmed the lights in our neighborhood!) who discovered the basis for alternating current. The Age Of Electricity was thus put in motion. Next he structured a system for delivering natural gas to homes. The gas industry owes its existence to Westinghouse.
MUCH MORE
In 1905, George’s new Alternating Current Engine made its appearance in locomotives and ships. His marine turbines created a new era on the high seas. Another patent was his telephone switching system, created long before the phone companies put them into widespread use. The first radio station in the world was Westinghouse’s KDKA in Pittsburgh. George then harnessed Niagara Falls' enormous hydro power with the world’s first turbine generator. He led the world to the atomic power that propels our U.S. Navy ships to this day. Among his other inventions were merely: sewing machines, washers and dryers, toasters, clothes irons, cooking grills, coffee percolators, AM/FM radios, and record players.
VERY ADVANCED
In 1871, George started giving his employees a half day off on Saturdays; the formative step that lead to today’s five-day work week. In 1908, he began the first pension fund, for his workers. In 1913, he initiated paid vacations. Westinghouse died on March 12, 1914. During his career, he created over 70 companies. Both he and his wife, Marguerite, to whom he credits all his success (as do I, to my very own precious “quality embellishment”, Alla), are among America’s most highly honored. They are buried side-by-side in the prestigious Arlington National Cemetery. What a guy.

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, Realtors at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.






KEN
Est. 1963
Serving Chico since 1977
President, Chico Assn. of Realtors 2001
Realtor of the Year 1995
Ken DuVall & Associates
1304 Mangrove Ave.
Chico, CA 95926
Local: 530-345-3700
Toll free: 866-899-3500
e-mail: kenduvall@msn.com
website: http://www.kenduvall.com/

Copy for Real Estate Guide Column for 7-15-05 (491 words)

REAL ESTATE PATTERNS
By Ken DuVall

Get Used To It!

We keep thinking it’s going to subside- not. Northern California housing activity is up 68% over a year ago. “Bubblenomics” has turned out to be a mad science. Homes in Compton- South Central L.A., home of the ’92 Rodney King riots- are selling for 20% over asking price, the last “affordable” housing in L.A. Flash: a 2 BR mobile home in a Malibu trailer park is listed for $1.4 mil, cash only, no loans available on these old trailers. While it does have a distant ocean view, the space rent is $2700 a month! Overall home sales are now 25% higher than ever before. The record national median home price, $207,000, is up 12.5% from a year ago. California’s home median has soared to a record $523,000. The average price for 200 active Chico listings is $494,000, with one of them asking $3.2 mil. Though listed just 3 weeks ago, 26 brand new 1382 SF condos priced from $229K to $249K near the Chico Mall, have already sold, some $6 mil worth. We’re closing escrow on 619,000 California homes annually. Actor Cliff Robertson’s 1.4 acre beachfront, 5900 SF La Jolla home just closed for $19 mil. Jerry Seinfeld’s East Hamptons, NY 40-acre estate is rumored to have sold for $90 mil, setting a new world record home price.
BOOM GOES ON
It’s hard to believe a California home is worth 40% more than it was 2 years ago- but it is. Continuing demand exceeds a lean supply. Nationally, 2 million new housing units will be required annually for the next decade with home sales of 8.5 million units per year. New loan originations: $3 trillion annually. Home price appreciation should average 5-6% annually over the next 10 years, much higher in hot areas. If income growth stays in line with home price growth, it will be sustainable. With national unemployment near 5%, low interest rates, and economic growth accelerating, the likelihood of a decline in home prices is remote. I don’t foresee a bubble burst- for sure a flattening- but continuing demand should keep the balloon up. Cautionary note: too many new interest-only loans portend a scary potential foreclosure scenario.
HOW HIGH IS UP?
California’s superheated real estate market has created $1 trillion- vs. $4 trillion nationally- in new equity over the last 5 years. We are in the midst of the real estate boom of all time, a red hot- no, make that white hot- housing market. Lender/builder surveys reveal tremendous ongoing strength with no hint the sky is falling. Rates are expected to be around 6% by year-end, enabling this enormous momentum to set sales records for the 5th straight year. My guess: we’re gonna be good at least through 2006. Especially in Chico, the Chosen Place, and for those few thousand fortunate urban drop outs coming here every year for The Good Life with their big city equities in their jeans. And we all lived happily ever after!

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, Realtors at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.