Monday, May 21, 2007

5-21-07 This is the latest re the CBS 60 Minutes saga. I love it! Ken

Redfin fined $50,000 over home-review sites
'Sweet Digs' blogs violate MLS policy


Friday, May 18, 2007By Jessica SweseyInman News

Seattle-based online discount brokerage company Redfin, under pressure from the multiple listing service, has pulled the plug on its Web logs offering reviews of properties for sale.
The broker-owned listing service, Northwest MLS, of which Redfin is a member, ruled that the reviews violated its regulations against advertising other brokers' listings. The MLS has issued a $50,000 fine to Redfin and threatened to terminate the brokerage firm's access to MLS data, which it displays on its Web site.

A representative from NWMLS did not immediately respond to Inman News' request for comment. Redfin said it is appealing the fine.

The company said the review sites, dubbed Sweet Digs, had attracted more than 3,000 e-mail subscribers over the last five months. The sites included postings from 15 independent reviewers who were paid by Redfin to visit properties in person and write reviews about the homes and neighborhoods they visited in Seattle and the San Francisco Bay Area.

"We're not trying to stir the pot," said Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman, who said the struggle with the MLS over the review sites had been a year in the making.

Redfin posted a notice on the Sweet Digs blogs and started receiving media attention and decided to release a statement Friday about the situation. The attention follows a Sunday night segment about the company that appeared on "60 Minutes" looking into the traditional commission structure of typical real estate agents.

Redfin is an online brokerage that rebates a portion of its commission back to home buyers in exchange for buyers doing most of the research themselves. The company also offers to list homes for sale for a flat rate.

The company's business model is not new; other real estate companies such as ZipRealty and Help-U-Sell have similar models that rebate portions of commissions or perform services at flat rates.

Redfin has spoken out at congressional hearings about rules and regulations set by the industry that the company says limit its ability to innovate. Industry insiders have fired back criticism that the company has used this as a crutch to make itself look like an underdog.

"We've said before that all the MLS rules form a thousand tiny shackles on our ability to innovate," Kelman said.

He noted that the MLS has a policy against commingling listing information with other non-MLS information on a Web site, though he said that Redfin's reviews were clearly separate from the listings on its site. What concerns the executive about this policy is that in a Web 2.0 world where information is constantly being mashed up together in new ways, that consumers won't be getting what they are looking for in real estate sites, he said.

Redfin plans to maintain the Sweet Digs sites as a local source of information about each of the markets it serves, but will have to shift its focus to analyzing price trends and recent sales.
Kelman said the company will change the names of the sites.

Friday, May 18, 2007

Gloom, Doom, & Bloom!

Copy for Real Estate Guide Column for 5-25-07

REAL ESTATE PATTERNS
By Ken DuVall

Gloom, Doom & Bloom!

We’re being inundated with a ton of pessimistic hype from the media. With them, the glass is always half empty, never half full. Even CBS’s “60 Minutes” on May 13th got into the act. To see my and the Nat’l Assn. of REALTORS response to their supercilious “ambush journalism hit piece” go to my website, click “My News Columns”, and scroll below this column. Their scenario was extremely biased. REALTORS nationwide are outraged.

Despite talk of housing tripping up the economy, we all know that Chicken Little panicked. The sky did not fall. She was mistaken. Many markets are in relatively good shape. We may have lost the frosting, but we still have the cake! Job growth, up 1.3% in California, tops the list; inflation appears under control; unemployment lines grow shorter; consumer spending is headed for a 2.5% to 3% rise this year, enough to keep the economy from stumbling. But we have to save up to buy a postage stamp and need a home equity loan to buy a tank of gas!

Office rents will increase 5% this year. Commercial property is hot. Investors are hovering like vultures. Recent mega-million dollar sales around the North State are common. A friend in Las Vegas has a 6000 SF shop in Caesar’s Forum. Rent: $130,000 a MONTH, up $100,000 from just 3 years ago. That’s $21 a SF! Chico is more like $1.50 a SF. Different markets, different values.

For awhile there it looked like we were on the road to recovery. Then the subprime mortgage fiasco hit, throwing a monkey wrench into the works. Some experts feel the worst of the price correction is behind us. We’ll see. The subprime mess will inevitably result in fewer buyers, and increases in foreclosures and inventory. But it will cleanse the market and may be just what the doctor ordered, even if the medicine is bitter.

Buyers should be prepared to cope with stricter underwriting requirements. The once ubiquitous 100% loans are now scarce as hen’s teeth. Stated income (no verification required) loans will no longer be available to subprime borrowers. Minimum FICO credit scores are up by 30 to 50 points. The old loose rules abetted by the euphoria of steadily rising prices are history. If you can’t put at least 5% down and have a FICO score above 620, you probably won’t get a loan. The free lunch counter is closed.

Yet nationally, existing home sales were actually 2.4% higher at an annual rate than the last quarter of 2006. Part of the decline in prices is because sales have shifted away from expensive homes. But as always, it’s a local thing. Chico is chugging right along. This is where we live, fortunately. We can watch the rest of the world pass by.

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, REALTORS at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.

Thursday, May 17, 2007

CBS 60 Minutes show of 5-13-07 reponse

5-15-07 To: CBS

I've been a proud REALTOR since 1963; President of the Chico Assn. of REALTORS in 2001; REALTOR of the Year in 1995, and a State Director of the California Assn. of REALTORS from 2001 through 2003. During this period I have been fortunate to have sold nearly $200 million worth of California real estate.

I found your 60 Minutes segment last Sunday to be most unfortunate, demeaning and inaccurate, both personally and to all of us NAR practitioners. I perceived it to be your standard liberal attack media hit piece and as such extremely biased and prejudicial to all REALTORS.
CBS obviously has no idea whatsoever what we do for our commissions.

By the way, the only people that MAKE money work in mint; we EARN ours, every penney. We don't just put out a yard sign and head for the golf course. The jeopardy and liability are great. How are those nerds at Redfin in Seattle going to deal with even the physical house inspections here in Chico, CA for example?

I'd be sued in a hot minute by my client if I weren't sheparding and watching out for their best interests and their transaction every day. I'll tell you another thing: my doctor won't reduce his fee, nor will my attorney, stock broker or CPA. I get paid what I do because I know how to do deals and keep my people safe. If you hadn't blindsided that unfortunate, hapless ReMax agent on your show, she might have said the same thing. At least you showed how diligent and professional she was.

I'm like the Yakuza: if you're harmed in any way, you get my little finger- and after 44 years in the business, I'm pleased to report that it's still attached to my hand! I have never been to court in my entire career.

Today's market is tough compared to the last few years. The main reason REALTORS today don't recommend a commission reduction is that sellers need every possible incentive, including perhaps even a bonus on TOP of the fee, is to encourage a selling agent to show their property over the competition in this period of inflated inventory.

The only reason I watch your show is to see what dirt you're going to dig up next so as to be prepared to combat it with some rational factual data. CBS is out of line, as usual. You, not unlike the NY Times, are one of the primary problems in this country: the portrayal of the facts in an outrageous, slanted and one-sided fashion.

You're essentially disgusting and empirical in your pompous, overblown and grandiloquent style of delivery. You're off my list. From now on I'll watch FOX, thank you, where the news truly is "Fair and Balanced." CBS needs remedial lessons in humility and telling the truth, the whole truth, for a refreshing change.

In closing, I must say that I resented the segment immensely. How dare you?!

Ken DuVall



NAR Responds to 60 Minutes' May 13, 2007 Segment

CBS News Magazine Show Misses the Mark May 14, 2007 -- In the world of political campaigns, it's a standard ploy to set the stage with an empty chair when one candidate refuses to debate his opponents. The CBS show 60 Minutes gave the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® the empty chair treatment in a May 13 segment that examined the impact of online brokerages on the real estate industry.

The show featured interviews with a representative from the now-defunct eRealty and the president and CEO of Redfin, but no one from NAR, even though NAR twice offered and prepared Association spokespersons for interviews with Leslie Stahl. It was CBS that made the decision it would rather interview our opponents and let them make unanswered -- and inaccurate and unfair -- accusations about REALTORS® and NAR policies. The one-sided journalism and egregious errors served no one well, especially the once-vaunted news magazine show.

NAR staff spent nearly a year working with CBS, briefing producers on the issues involved. The producers attended the REALTORS® Conference in New Orleans and met with NAR's legal counsel for half a day in Chicago. Yet, still the segment was full of major errors. NAR is in communication with 60 Minutes about its unbalanced reporting and presentation of misinformation and will be sending the CBS network a letter demanding an opportunity to correct these errors and misrepresentations.

Here are some examples of the misinformation:

Error: The six percent commission is "sacrosanct."
Fact: All commissions are negotiable. The average commission rate is not 6 percent, but 5.1 percent, according to Real Trends.

Error: NAR is the industry's "governing body."
Fact: NAR is a trade association. It does not govern the industry.

Error: In 2003, NAR issued new rules of its own that threatened to block Internet discounters' access to the MLS.
Fact: The Virtual Office Website policy did not block access to MLSs for discounters or any other brokers who are members of the MLS.

Error: The MLS is the database that lists virtually every home for sale in the country.
Fact: There is no single national MLS. Rather, there are more than 900 local and regional multiple listing services. These are not simply "databases" but private exchange of offers of cooperation and compensation between real estate brokers.

Error: Eight states have "minimum service laws" that require REALTORS® to provide a level of service many Internet discounters can't afford.
Fact: "REALTOR®" is a trademarked term and should never be used synonymously with "real estate agent." The intent of minimum service laws is to ensure consumers receive a minimal level of service from licensees.

Error: The brokerage industry has a powerful lobby. Eleven states flatly prohibit rebates.
Fact: The intent of anti-rebate laws is to prevent kickbacks in real estate transactions, not to limit brokers' incentives to attract customers. The brokerage industry does not lobby for anti-rebate laws.

Other key points 60 Minutes misrepresented or overlooked: NAR supports all business models and favors none. Our 1.3 million members include REALTORS® who work on a full-service basis, as well as those who consider themselves to be limited service, fee-for-service, minimum service, and discounters. We think it's great that consumers have a choice today.

The real estate industry has harnessed technology for the benefit of consumers and will continue to do so. Real estate is both high-tech and high-touch, so can be enhanced by both electronic and personal interaction.

There is no such thing as a "standard commission." Commissions are negotiable and prices vary. The fact is that commission rates have decreased 16 percent from 1991 to 2004 (source: Real Trends).

The real estate business is unique in that competitors must also cooperate with each other to ensure a successful transaction, and MLS systems facilitate that cooperation. The first MLS was created more than 100 years ago as way for brokers to share their listing agreements with each another in hopes of procuring buyers for their properties more quickly and efficiently than they could on their own.

The MLS is a tool to help listing brokers find cooperative buyer brokers to help sell their clients' homes. Without the collaborative incentive of the existing MLS, brokers would create their own separate systems, fragmenting rather than consolidating property information.

Monday, May 14, 2007

Copy for Real Estate Guide Column for 5-18-07

REAL ESTATE PATTERNS
By Ken DuVall

Across the Board

The Bright Side: Experts project 6.29 million existing home sales this year, but stricter lending standards are contributing to somewhat lowered expectations than earlier forecasts. One benefit is the disappearance of the speculators who contributed to abnormal price appreciation.

Today’s wise home buyers are purchasing for the long term with realistic expectations of modest gains over time. Housing first and foremost is shelter, but also a long-term investment, slowly generating true wealth.

Expect a gain to 6.49 million sales in 2008 vs. 6.48 million in 2006. New home sales should be 864,000 in 2007 and 936,000 next year vs. 1.8 million last year. Housing starts are projected at 1.46 million units in 2007 and 1.52 mil in 2008. Those numbers are reassuring.

Thank goodness for a favorable economic backdrop or housing would have a harder landing. As it stands, what’s happening is viewed as a soft landing with home sales rising gradually into the 2nd half of 2007 with prices recovering after that. You must know where you’re at in the game.

The Dark Side: Sellers in 2007 will have a tougher time closing deals and may have to settle for less, plus throwing in buyer concessions as prices stagnate or slide. That’s good news for buyers, but they’ll have a tougher time getting loans. The reality is homes will linger on the market while prices remain soft. These are national statistics. Let’s take a peek at our beautiful Chico.

Our sales are 20% ahead of 2006. There were 312 closed sales (median $325,000) from 1-1-06 through 5-11-06 vs. the 378 sales (median $309,000, down nearly 5%) to date in 2007 with another 153 in escrow. As we already know: all real estate is local, and when you’re hot, you’re hot! Whether we like it or not, Chico is on the increase despite inherent growing pains. You will never please everyone.

Surprisingly, the proposed $900 million Meriam Park project off Bruce Rd. has most of the political spectrum in favor. Utilizing 272 acres with up to 2500 new homes plus commercial to be phased in over 10-12 years will by itself account for a near 10% population growth, not to mention the increased tax base we so sorely need. There are also many other new homes currently in the permit pipeline. Chico is vibrant, competitive, and in demand. So be it.

Final thoughts: There’s unrelenting pressure for increases of property transfer taxes, building material and labor costs, coupled with global markets in upheaval, commodities, tariffs, trade deficits, on and on. Bottom line: if you own real estate, hang on to it. It’s a true asset amidst troubling times. If you don’t, get some while the getting’s good!

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, REALTORS at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.

Friday, May 04, 2007

WHICH MARKET?

REAL ESTATE PATTERNS for 5-11-07
By Ken DuVall

WHICH MARKET?

We keep hearing that the real estate market has changed. Depending on the media source its either “slowed, leveled off, is in a trough, has retreated, plunged, collapsed, corrected, contracted, or, returned to normal”. The market has not returned to normal. It’s simply moving on.

Change is the only constant. Every market is different and unique, driven by combined events of the moment. If you’d been the game since 1963 like me, it becomes clear. Return with me now to those thrilling days of yesteryear.

Our last “normal” year was 1978. Housing was generally affordable. Loan rates were 9.5%. Between 1980 and 1981, sales plummeted as rates topped 16.5%. Homes languished unsold and there were foreclosures. The 20% mandatory down payment vanished. “Creative financing” made its appearance.

By 1983 the market had improved dramatically as adjustable rate loans appeared and rates declined. Even as rates stayed above 10% until 1990, more and more homes were sold. In 1988 sales hit a new record, but by 1991, they had bottomed out. The market went along mostly sideways until 1999. Then the Big Boom began.

Record numbers of homes were sold over the next 2 years. The new “easy loans” appeared. Everybody and his brother started snapping up homes like they were going out of style. Demand of all types combined to overwhelm the inventory. Price no longer seemed to be a factor. Multiple offers were common. We had entered the real estate explosion of all time.

Was it a “feeding frenzy”? Or, was it simply an incredibly dynamic period when real estate met with many economic elements that just fell perfectly into place? The stars were in alignment. But by mid-2006, the honeymoon was over. You can’t fly that high and not have some fallout. Nature has a way of avoiding extremes and seeks balance.

Regarding the troubling sub prime loan fiasco, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. assures us that only 1% of all existing loans are in foreclosure, historically normal. It’s not as bad as it may seem. Many borrowers in default and their lenders will work out deals to avoid foreclosures. New rules and regs now being formulated at the highest levels will preclude a repeat.

It’s not all hearts and flowers right now but the present downturn will run its course. In Chico we’re still putting a nice quantity of deals in escrow. The national economy is doing well. We’ve had 14 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. Over 95% of Americans have jobs. The Dow stocks are at an all-time high. It may be that we have nothing to fear but fear itself. Give it a few more months. Time will tell.

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, REALTORS at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.