Copy for Real Estate Guide Column for 11-5-10
REAL ESTATE PATTERNS
By Ken DuVall

PASSING THE TORCH

It’s been a great run doing this column which started when I became President of the Chico Assn. of REALTORS in 2001. It began as the “President’s Corner” and evolved into “Real Estate Patterns” over the years. I’ve enjoyed every moment… until lately. I feel it’s time to give it a rest. I’ve been in this business since 1963.

I just don’t care to go on dealing with press deadlines. My doctor told me to start relieving the daily stress and watch the cooking channel instead of the news! I’m not going to do that but I do plan to slow it down some. However, my office and website will remain active for your convenience. Feel free to call me anytime.

Therefore, my colleague and good bud Doug Love has agreed to take over this column spot for me. Doug entered our business at my urging some 20 years ago. He and I were roomies at Coldwell Banker DuFour Realty for 10 years. He is deserving of your support.

After a stint as Sales Manager at Century 21 Jeffries Lydon, Doug took over that spot a decade ago. He is one of the most knowledgeable and competent professionals around and a totally appropriate protégé/successor for me here. He is the essence of what a REALTOR should be.

I have no doubt that Doug will continue in my tradition and keep you informed. He has his finger on the pulse of our Chico housing community. It’s altogether fitting and proper for him to follow in my footsteps. Doug is just what the doctor ordered.

So ya’ll keep those cards and letters a’comin’! Love, and may God bless you all. Try and keep the Faith. Drop on by and I’ll bake you a cake!!

Ken

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, REALTORS at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.

Copy for Real Estate Guide Column for 10-29-10

REAL ESTATE PATTERNS
By Ken DuVall

BUYING A HOME MAKES GOOD SENSE

Nearly 8 of 10 respondents believe buying a home is a good financial decision, despite ongoing challenges with the economy and housing market. That’s according to the 2010 National Housing Pulse Survey, an annual report released by the National Association of Realtors. The survey, which measures how affordable housing issues affect consumers, also found job security concerns to be the highest in 8 years of sampling, with 70% of Americans saying that job layoffs and unemployment are a big problem in their area. So what else is new?!

“The real issue facing the nation’s economy right now is that many Americans can’t find meaningful work to support their families,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder. “While job recovery is what’s needed right now to get the economy and housing market back on the right track, owning a home continues to be part of the American Dream and one of the best long-term investments in your future.”

Despite economic uncertainty, 68% of those surveyed still believe now is a good time to buy a home. While that number is down from last year (75%), it’s up from 2008 (66%) and 2007 (59%). Lower home prices and record-low mortgage interest rates are attracting buyers. More than 25% of renters said they are thinking about buying a home than they were a year ago. Sixty-three percent of renter respondents said that owning a home is a priority in their future, and 40% said it was one of their highest priorities. Lower home prices have improved affordability. Demand never stops.

Despite improved affordability, 79% of respondents still consider having enough money for down payments and closing costs to be among the biggest obstacles to buying a home. Another is a lack of confidence in their ability to be approved for a loan, reported by 73% of respondents. It’s a real challenge to get a loan anymore.

The good news is that Americans are seeing more stability in the real estate market. Nearly 70% believe home values have stabilized in their area. The same number expects home sales to remain about the same through the end of the year. But there are still many issues in play here.
Thirty-six percent of respondents cite the recession, loss of jobs, and the poor economy as the main reason for the ongoing foreclosure dilemma. While 70% say it’s harder to sell a home in their area today than it was a year ago, it’s less of a concern from last year when the number was 10 percentage points higher, the result of somewhat lower home inventories now.

The 2010 National Housing Pulse Survey was conducted by American Strategies and Myers Research & Strategic Services for NAR’s Housing Opportunity Program among 1,209 adults living in the 25 most populous metropolitan statistical areas. The study has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. All things considered, I’d say we’re looking more good than bad at this point.

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, REALTORS at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.

Copy for Real Estate Guide Column for 10-22-10
REAL ESTATE PATTERNS
By Ken DuVall

CALIFORNIA ASSN. OF REALTORS HOUSING FORECAST

Not surprisingly, weaker-than-expected economic recovery will result in a projected decline in California home sales for 2010, although sales are expected to edge up slightly in 2011, according to C.A.R.’s Forecast released this week.

It says California home sales for 2011 are projected to increase 2% to 502,000 units compared with 492,000 units (projected) in 2010. After 2 consecutive years of record-setting price declines, the median home price in California will increase 2% in 2011 to $312,500, according to the forecast. So be it.

“As the U.S. economy continues its tepid recovery, we’ll see some improvement in California’s economy,” said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “We expect a net jobs increase of approximately 1.4 million jobs in California for the year to come and a decrease in unemployment.” Amen to that. Our unfortunate construction workers represent a huge percentage of the jobless.

“A lean supply of available homes for sale will drive prices up at the low end, but larger inventories and limited attractive financing will cause continued softness in the high end. There’s some indication that lenders will accelerate the number of foreclosures coming on market, further adding to the housing supply, but we do not anticipate that lenders will flood the market with distressed properties,” per Leslie.

“The wild cards for 2011 include federal housing policies, actions of underwater homeowners, and the strength of any economic recovery,” said Appleton-Young. “What is certain is that favorable home prices and historically low interest rates will continue to make California homeownership attractive for those who are in a position to buy.” Chico homes are a bargain today. There are a lot of distressed properties here too.

Foreclosed homes accounted for a heretofore incredible 24% of all residential sales in the second quarter of 2010, RealtyTrac reports. The average price of foreclosed properties was more than 26% less than the average price of non-foreclosures. Banks have foreclosed on 3 million U.S. homes since 2007.

Nevada, Arizona, and California posted the highest percentages of foreclosure sales in Q2.Foreclosures accounted for an enormous 43% of all sales in California, the third highest among the states. California pre-foreclosure sales (short sales) increased 8% from the previous quarter, but were down 4% from the second quarter of 2009.

California bank-owned sales increased 1% from the previous quarter but were down 45% from the second quarter of 2009. Lenders with foreclosure discrepancies nationwide, the latest shoe to drop in a growing fiasco, calls into question whether large financial institutions sufficiently documented the vital details surrounding repossessed properties. What a colossal nightmare.

Our already fragile housing market certainly didn’t need any more problems, and the full ramifications of this situation are not yet clear. What is clear is we still have a substantial backlog of foreclosed properties- with some 10 million more in the hopper- that may at some point hit the marketplace. Bottom line: The overall housing dilemma is not going be resolved for several years. As always: buy on bad news, sell on good.

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, REALTORS at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.