Copy for Real Estate Guide Column for 1-9-09

REAL ESTATE PATTERNS
By Ken DuVall

TRY AND HAVE A HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Ronald Reagan said it: “Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” He also said, “Politics is not a bad profession. If you succeed, there are many rewards. If you fail, you can always write a book.” I think we’ll be seeing a lot of books!

Way back when, the horse and buggy was king. They, along with thriving buggy whip companies, disappeared with the advent of gas engines, automobiles and tractors. Who ever thought that some new-fangled invention could ever replace thousands of years of horses for wagons, plows and trolleys? And now, Detroit itself is transforming. The UAW could end up owning the Big Three Automakers before it’s over. Some things change, but some don’t. U.S. railroad tracks are the same exact width that Roman chariot wheels were!

Lately, major economists are predicting that what is shaping up as the deepest and longest recession since the 1930’s will end later this New Year! The ongoing impact of $2 trillion in government stimulus along with pent-up demand and returning consumer confidence will finally lead us into a turnaround. Dr. Scott Anderson, senior economist for Wells Fargo, predicts the housing sector that led us into this morass is about to turn the corner and will lead the way out. So be it.

Chief investment strategist Dr. Jim Paulsen at Wells Fargo states that despite continuing job losses, the “fear mongering” by government officials and the liberal press have led to “economic paralysis”. Now “consumers who waited to buy a car or a home will definitely buy one.” As I always say, demand never stops. It just gets delayed sometimes. The national year-end home sales/price stats are totally dismal but I have faith we’ll pull out of it.

America ranks at the top of the pile: With the largest economy at $14 trillion, the U.S. dwarfs every other, triple that of Japan; the most broadly used currency; the biggest importer/exporter; the mightiest military; and by far the largest contributor to foreign aid. The U.S. is the world’s preeminent economy, even in the face of Treasury Bills now yielding close to zero percent. Global money still flocks to our safe haven. I believe America shall be reborn, stronger and better than ever.

As far as Beautiful Chico is concerned, we fared amazingly well in 2008 compared to 2007 with its 875 home sales, median price $325,000, 81 days on market. For 2008 we closed 755 homes, median $284,900, 75 days on market. The median price was down only 12.34% with sales off only 13.71%. Last week there were 101 more in escrow and a reasonable 360 active listings. Have a Great New Year.

Ken owns Ken DuVall & Associates, REALTORS at 3rd Ave. & Mangrove in Chico. Ken was the 2001 President of the Chico Assn. of Realtors and the 1995 Chico Realtor of the Year. See Chico MLS listings at www.KenDuVall.com and call Ken at 345-3700 for all your real estate needs. Free consulting.